Transport for LondonProspects and outlook
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London's population is growing more rapidly than the population of any European city since 1989. The city's population, currently around 7.6 million, is set to grow significantly over the next 20 years reaching an estimated 8.3 million by 2026. This anticipates that the number of people employed in the Capital will increase by 545,000.
Growth in travel is predicted to continue, with at least an extra four million daily trips by 2025, predominately by public transport (41 per cent), car (25 per cent) and walking (25 per cent).
Public transport trips are predicted to increase from around 7.6 million trips per day to over nine million trips per day by 2025.
Car trips in London are projected to increase, albeit at a significantly slower rate than public transport, as a result of growth in population and income.
It is anticipated that the additional 1.64 million public transport trips will be broadly equally split between bus (34 per cent), Underground (26 per cent) and National Rail (40 per cent).
Fares policy
The Mayor's fares policy aims to support TfL's Investment Programme and wider spending plans. Any decisions on fares levels different to those assumed in TfL's 2004 financial settlement with Government will be reflected in the annual update of the five-year Business Plan and will ensure the plan remains financially balanced.
Cost pressures
TfL's operations and ongoing Investment Programme are subject to a range of potential cost pressures which could possibly arise.
These include:
Asset renewal
Unforeseen costs of bringing transport assets such as roads and the Underground into a state of good repair
Legislative compliance
Additional national and EU legal requirements
Energy prices
Increase in oil and/or electricity prices
Terrorism
Terrorism-related and increased security costs
Construction capacity
Increased costs associated with a shortage in construction capacity.
Capital investment
TfL is currently delivering £12bn of improvements through projects included in its Investment Programme (see table below). This includes project work on TfL's assets and works that are carried out by boroughs, PPP and PFI contractors.
| Capital investment(£m) | 2005/06 | 2006/07 | 2007/08 | 2008/09 | 2009/10 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | Plan | Plan | Plan | Plan | ||
| Net investment | 2,189 | 2,332 | 2,481 | 2,626 | 2,402 | 12,030 |
Financing of the Investment Programme is from:
- Income (net operating income)
- Government grant
- Precept
- Prudential borrowing
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